by: Terren Klein, CEO of College Pulse
As Bernie Sanders emerges as a clear frontrunner in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination, he has young voters to thank for his success in Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada. College students’ strong support for the Vermont senator will continue to pay off for Sanders when more than a dozen states hold presidential primaries on Super Tuesday.
During the 2016 primaries, Sanders got more votes from the under-30 crowd than Clinton and Trump combined. His long-standing support from young people, coupled with increased voter turnout among young voters that began in 2018, could propel him to primary wins on Super Tuesday. Texas and California alone have more than 4 million college students, and 50 percent of Democratic college students nationwide support Sanders. His support among students has only risen since his heart attack in October — the one time students’ support for Elizabeth Warren surpassed their support for Sanders.
This increasing support from students was behind Sanders’ gains in Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada this month. Ahead of the Iowa caucuses, the Chegg/College Pulse Student Election Tracker found that 35 percent of Democratic-leaning college students in the state supported Sanders, followed by Elizabeth Warren (29 percent) and Pete Buttigieg (19 percent). On the day of the Iowa caucuses, a CBS News entrance poll showed that nearly one in four voters were under the age of 30 — and Sanders virtually tied with Buttigieg.
Sanders held a similar lead (35 percent support) among Democratic college students in New Hampshire ahead of the primary, followed by Buttigieg (26 percent). New Hampshire’s colleges and universities have more than 70,0000 full-time students who helped push Sanders to the front of the pack in the New Hampshire primary.
Most recently, Sanders’ sweeping win in the Nevada caucus was unsurprising. Ahead of the caucus, he held the biggest lead thus far, polling at 56 percent amongst Nevada college students. Similarly to the Iowa caucus, nearly 1 in 5 of the caucus voters were under the age of 30 according to CBS News’ entrance poll. Additionally, Sanders has traditionally been a favorite amongst the Latinx students, polling nationally at 67 percent. The NBC entrance poll showed that Sanders gained 51 percent of the Latinx vote in Nevada, proving again that the student support is an obvious bellwether to primary results.
Meanwhile, the former vice president and expected frontrunner Joe Biden has been on the decline among college students since he officially entered the race in April. Just 9 percent of college Democrats in New Hampshire threw their support behind Biden ahead of the primary, nearly mirroring his 8 percent finish in the nation’s first 2020 primary. Students simply haven’t been excited by Biden’s calls for incremental change, and their lack of interest had a clear impact on the early presidential contests. And while Biden won in South Carolina nationally, our polling of SC college students showed Biden (20%) trailing Sanders (40%) in the state.
Another moderate Democrat, Michael Bloomberg, will likely run up against the same problem. The former New York City mayor skipped Iowa and New Hampshire entirely in order to focus on Super Tuesday states, but he has even less support from college students than Biden. Just 3 percent of Democratic college students nationwide back Bloomberg, suggesting that he won’t emerge a Super Tuesday frontrunner as his campaign hopes.
Sanders’ 2020 campaign made college students a priority by visiting more college campuses than Biden, Buttigieg, and Warren, according to analysis by the Chronicle of Higher Education, and focusing on issues crucial to students from day one. Going into the 2020 election, the environment is the most important issue for Democratic students. Sanders confirmed his commitment to protecting the environment at any cost by backing the Green New Deal, which calls for a revolutionary overhaul of America’s energy and transportation systems.
Sanders has also addressed Gen Z’s financial fears on the campaign trail. The nation’s student debt has soared above $1.5 trillion, and almost half (48 percent) of college students today say their student loans will be a major factor in determining what kind of job they take after graduation. Sanders’ plans to cancel all student loan debt and guarantee free education are the most drastic of any candidate and give young voters hope for a future in which their decisions aren’t weighed down by their debts.
Which candidate has the best chance of beating Donald Trump in November remains the looming question for a majority of Democratic voters. While many are skeptical a democratic socialist could gain enough support from moderates and Independents in the general election, the strength of the youth vote shouldn’t be discounted. One in 10 eligible voters in 2020 will belong to Gen Z, and Gen Z and millennials combined will account for 37 percent of the electorate. Republican lawmakers recognize the voting potential of college students — who tend to lean further left than older voters — which explains new laws in states such as New Hampshire, Texas, and Wisconsin that aim to keep students away from the polls.
Despite those efforts, young people are expected to vote in record numbers in 2020. And their appetite for big structural change that fueled Sanders’ recent wins could continue as states across the country head to the polls. College students’ significant impact in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina is only the beginning.